The discard is the most consequential decision in cribbage. Every round, you choose which 4 cards to keep and which 2 to send to the crib. A strong discard can mean the difference between a 6-point hand and a 14-point hand — and over a full game, those margins decide who wins. It’s no surprise that discard decisions are a focal point of ACC tournament strategy.

The key insight: your discard strategy changes depending on whether you’re the dealer or the pone (non-dealer), because the crib belongs to the dealer.

The Fundamental Principle

When you’re dealt 6 cards, there are 15 possible ways to split them into a 4-card hand and a 2-card discard. The best players mentally evaluate the top 2–3 options and choose the one with the highest combined expected value:

  • As dealer: Hand value + expected crib value
  • As pone: Hand value − expected crib value (you want to minimize what you give)

This dual consideration is what makes discarding in cribbage so rich.

Discarding as Dealer (Your Crib)

When the crib is yours, you can afford to be generous. You’re evaluating: “Which discard maximizes my hand + crib total?”

Best Cards to Send to Your Crib

Cards Why They’re Good in the Crib
5 Pairs with any 10-value card for a fifteen. The single best crib card.
5-5 Pair + massive fifteen potential = typically 6+ crib points
5-10, 5-J, 5-Q, 5-K Guaranteed fifteen (2 pts) plus potential for more
2-3 Forms fifteens with 10-values and runs with A-4
7-8 Guaranteed fifteen plus run potential with 6 or 9
Pairs Any pair in the crib is guaranteed 2 points
Consecutive cards Run potential: 9-10, 6-7, 3-4, etc.

Cards to Avoid in Your Crib

Cards Why They’re Weak in the Crib
K-A Very far apart (K=13, A=1). Almost no synergy.
K-Q (without a J) No fifteen potential, limited run potential
Low-high mismatches A-9, 2-K, etc. — no combining potential

Dealer Discard Examples

Dealt: 4-5-6-9-J-Q

Option A: Keep 4-5-6-J, discard 9-Q → Hand has run + fifteens (5+J, 4+5+6). Crib gets a far-apart 9-Q.

Option B: Keep 4-5-6-Q, discard 9-J → Similar hand value. Crib gets 9+J which don’t combine well either.

Option C: Keep 9-J-Q + ?, discard something with the 5 → You’d be breaking up the 4-5-6 run for a weaker hand, but seeding the crib with a 5.

Best choice: Option A or B. The 4-5-6-J hand is worth at least 7 before the starter (fifteen: 5+J = 2; run: 4-5-6 = 3; fifteen: 4+5+6 = 2). Any starter of 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or any face card improves it further.

Discarding as Pone (Opponent’s Crib)

When your opponent gets the crib, you want to balk — discard cards that are least likely to help them. The principle: keep your strongest hand, but don’t gift the crib.

Cards to Discard to Opponent’s Crib

Cards Why They’re Safe
K-A Maximum rank distance. Almost zero scoring potential.
K-9, Q-9 Distant cards with no fifteen synergy
Low cards (A-2, A-3) Low synergy, weak fifteen potential
K-10 No fifteen, no run, no pair

Cards to NEVER Discard to Opponent’s Crib

Cards Why They’re Dangerous
5 (any) Pairs with 16 cards in the deck for fifteens
5-5 A gift — guaranteed pair + massive combo potential
5-10, 5-J, 5-Q, 5-K Guaranteed fifteen in opponent’s crib
Pairs Guaranteed 2 points for your opponent
7-8 Guaranteed fifteen
Sequential cards Run potential for opponent

The golden rule as pone: Never discard a 5 to your opponent’s crib unless there is absolutely no alternative.

Pone Discard Examples

Dealt: 3-5-7-8-10-K

Option A: Keep 5-7-8-10, discard 3-K → Strong hand (5+10=15, 7+8=15 = at least 4 pts). Safe discard — 3 and K are distant.

Option B: Keep 3-5-7-8, discard 10-K → Keeps the 5 in hand (good), but discard 10-K gives opponent run potential with a J.

Option C: Keep 7-8-10-K, discard 3-5 → Sends a 5 to opponent’s crib. Bad.

Best choice: Option A. The 5 stays in your hand where it earns points for you, and the 3-K discard is very crib-safe.

The Value of the 5

The 5 is the most powerful card in cribbage. Here’s why:

  • There are 16 cards in the deck with a value of 10 (10, J, Q, K × 4 suits)
  • Every one pairs with a 5 for a fifteen
  • That means a 5 in the crib has roughly a 49% chance of making at least one fifteen with a random card

No other card comes close to this combinatorial power. Treat 5s like gold — keep them in your hand, never send them to your opponent’s crib.

Expected Crib Values by Discard

Research and computer analysis have calculated the average crib contribution of common discards:

Discard Average Crib Value (Dealer)
5-5 ~6.5 points
5-J ~4.5 points
5-10, 5-Q, 5-K ~4.3 points
7-8 ~4.0 points
2-3 ~3.7 points
6-9 ~3.5 points
4-4 ~3.5 points
Random pair ~3.2 points
K-A ~2.0 points
K-10 ~2.2 points

As the pone, invert this logic: the high-value rows are what you avoid sending, and the low-value rows are your ideal discards to the opponent.

Advanced: The Combined Decision

Expert players don’t evaluate the hand and crib separately — they calculate the combined expected value (CEV) of all 15 possible keep/discard splits.

Example: Dealt 3-4-5-5-6-K

Keep Discard Hand Points (min) Est. Crib Combined
3-4-5-5 6-K 10 (pair + runs + 15) ~2.5 ~12.5
3-4-5-6 5-K 9 (run + fifteens) ~3.8 ~12.8
4-5-5-6 3-K 14 (double run + fifteens) ~2.3 ~16.3
3-5-5-6 4-K 8 (pair + fifteens) ~2.3 ~10.3

The winner is 4-5-5-6 even though discarding 3-K gives a modest crib. The hand itself is so strong (double run of 3 + pair + multiple fifteens) that it dominates the decision.

As pone, you’d still keep 4-5-5-6 and discard 3-K — it’s both the strongest hand and a safe discard.

Situational Adjustments

The “best math” discard isn’t always the right discard. Board position matters:

  • You’re behind by 20+ points: Favor high-variance keeps. A hand that could score 4 or 20 depending on the starter is better than a safe 10 when you’re desperate.
  • You’re ahead by 20+ points: Favor safe, guaranteed points. A 10-point floor is better than a risky 4-or-20 hand when you’re protecting a lead.
  • Late game (fourth street): If you need exactly 8 points to win, keep the hand most likely to hit at least 8. Don’t maximize average value — maximize the probability of reaching 121. See Endgame Strategy.

Frequently Asked Questions

Should I always keep a 5?

Almost always. The 5 is the highest-value card in cribbage due to its synergy with 10-value cards. The only exception is when keeping the 5 forces you to break up a significantly stronger combination (like a long run or a double run).

Is it ever right to discard a pair?

Yes — when the pair doesn’t synergize with your other cards and you have a stronger 4-card combination without it. A pair of Kings with no other face cards or 5s is relatively weak. If keeping 5-6-7-8 instead means discarding K-K, the run + fifteens in 5-6-7-8 is usually worth more.

How much is the crib worth on average?

The average crib is worth approximately 4.7 points. With optimal discarding, an experienced dealer can push this to 5–6 points. A poorly constructed crib (from balking pone discards) averages closer to 3.5–4 points.

What’s the worst possible discard to my opponent?

The worst discard to give your opponent is 5-5 — guaranteed pair (2 pts) plus enormous fifteen potential. A 5-5 discard gives your opponent an expected crib boost of roughly 6.5 points.